Letting Nvidia sell H200s to China is closing the door after horse has bolted (www.theregister.com)

The Trump administration's recent decision to allow Nvidia to sell its H200 AI chips to Chinese customers, albeit with a 25% revenue cut for the U.S. government, raises significant concerns about the effectiveness of U.S. export controls on semiconductor technology. Despite the reversal, which might appear to open opportunities, China has been rapidly advancing its own semiconductor capabilities, largely as a response to previous U.S. policies intended to stifle its access to Western tech. With reports suggesting that the Chinese government is restricting imported H200s and pushing local tech firms to develop homegrown alternatives, it is clear that the ship for maintaining a competitive technological edge has already sailed. China's ongoing developments include Huawei's high-performance CloudMatrix systems, which, while energy-intensive, promise remarkable advancements in processing capabilities. Additionally, Baidu is expected to launch powerful new accelerators designed to support complex AI models. The rise of indigenous players like Cambricon and Biren means that even if U.S. technology can enter the market, it may no longer be the dominant force. This situation underscores a critical shift where U.S. trade policies have inadvertently spurred technological independence in China, challenging the original intent to delay its semiconductor advancements.