Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden (andyljones.com)

In a thought-provoking lightning talk at a recent workshop, an AI researcher from Anthropic illustrated the rapid evolution of artificial intelligence by comparing its advancements to historical shifts in technology, such as the transition from horses to steam engines and the development of computer chess. While AI-related capital expenditure has been steadily increasing—currently at 2% of US GDP—its impact on the workforce appears to exponentially surpass earlier technologies. The researcher shared a personal experience where the AI system Claude quickly took over a significant portion of his responsibilities, highlighting that in just six months, it became capable of answering 30,000 questions monthly—eight times what him and his colleagues managed—even at a fraction of the cost. This stark transformation raises crucial questions about the pace of AI progress and its implications for employment, emphasizing that while historical advancements may have unfolded gradually, AI is accelerating toward human equivalence in unprecedented ways. As this AI system automates tasks traditionally performed by humans, such as answering complex queries, the researcher fears that the workforce, much like horses in the face of mechanical progress, may face swift obsolescence. The talk serves as a cautionary reminder for the AI/ML community to prepare for the rapid changes brought on by AI technologies, as significant disruption could occur well before we fully understand or adapt to these advancements.