Someone at YouTube Needs Glasses: The Prophecy Has Been Fulfilled (jayd.ml)

A former analysis of YouTube’s “information density” — a statistical look at how many videos appear on the home screen — predicted only one video would remain by May 2026. That projection looked prescient after a disgruntled Googler leaked a recording of how YouTube’s product team handled criticism, and a recent Apple TV screenshot shared by the analyst showed an even sparser home screen. The analyst says months of work by Gemini-linked YouTube engineers appear to have accelerated the trend, prompting an updated forecast that the homescreen will reach zero visible videos around May 2026 (previously September). For the AI/ML community this is notable because it signals a shift in platform surface and algorithmic curation: fewer candidate thumbnails means stronger centralization of recommendation models (and potentially heavier reliance on a single AI-curated feed such as a Gemini-backed ranker). That has downstream consequences for creator discovery, A/B testing of UI affordances, evaluation metrics (engagement vs. diversity), and how product teams interpret user feedback. The leak also highlights governance and communication risks when aggressive model-driven UI changes hit the public — a reminder that small tweaks to ranking or presentation can produce outsized effects on visibility, business metrics, and developer trust.