AI bubble concerns tee up crucial Nvidia earnings report (www.axios.com)

Nvidia’s quarterly report is set to be a make-or-break moment for the AI trade as the stock — and the broader market — has recently cooled amid concerns investors became overly bullish. Because Nvidia accounts for roughly 10% of the Nasdaq-100 ETF, a sharp move on earnings could ripple through markets. Historically NVDA’s one‑day post-earnings move averages about ±7.9%, and while the company has beaten revenue, EPS and raised guidance in eight of the last 11 quarters, it has often still closed lower on earnings day, underscoring volatility and high investor sensitivity. Analysts will parse management’s update for clearer evidence that blockbuster demand for Blackwell-era chips (Nvidia said it had booked $500 billion in Blackwell revenue through 2026 at GTC) translates into sustainable top‑line growth. Key technical and strategic angles: whether Nvidia can restore or expand China chip access amid national‑security limits; the durability of hyperscaler and AI-app vendor spend from Meta, Oracle, OpenAI, Tesla and others; and risks around circular vendor-financing loops, supply constraints and the financial health of AI infrastructure players. The report’s tone on bookings, gross margins, capex guidance and China exposure will shape the near‑term debate on whether this is a successful support test or a catalyst for a broader de‑risking of the AI trade.