Goldman Sachs says most of the AI boom may already be priced in (www.businessinsider.com)

Goldman Sachs analysts warned that much of the market’s “AI boom” may already be priced in, urging investors not to assume broad-based, sustained profit windfalls across the corporate landscape. In a note they cautioned that investors tend to over-aggregate — attributing large profit gains to too many players in the AI supply chain — and to over-extrapolate early productivity boosts that are often eroded by competition and subsequent reinvestment. They estimate AI could add roughly $8 trillion in incremental revenue for US companies (a range of $5–$19 trillion), but offered no explicit timeline and pointed out that AI-related market value has risen by over $19 trillion since ChatGPT’s debut, suggesting valuations may be further advanced than the macro case justifies. The technical implication for the AI/ML community is twofold: early adopters and leading incumbent firms can show “stunning” earnings growth, but aggregate sector returns are constrained by diffusion, competitive entry, and capital intensity that compress margins over time. Goldman stopped short of declaring a bubble, but flagged that high valuations are vulnerable if economic growth slows or investor optimism fades. The message reinforces the need for rigorous ROI measurement, realistic adoption curves, and careful differentiation between pioneering firms and the broader set of companies that investors have priced as AI winners.