OpenAI is projecting unprecedented revenue growth (epoch.ai)

OpenAI has published revenue forecasts that would be historic if realized: after crossing ~$1B in 2023 and projecting >$10B in 2025, the company told investors it expects roughly $100B in revenue by 2028. That implies year-over-year multipliers of ~2.3× in 2026, 2.0× in 2027 and 1.6× in 2028 on top of an already ~3× growth rate today. Market observers note no clear precedent for a company growing from ~$10B to $100B in three years; the fastest comparable cases (Tesla, Meta) took seven years, and the median growth rate in similar high-growth runs was only ~1.3× per year. Hitting OpenAI’s path would thus be exceptional — and failing to do so could have broad ripple effects. Technically and economically, the stakes are concrete. OpenAI currently gets ~75% of revenue from ChatGPT (about 20M paid users today) but projects only ~$50B of 2028 revenue from ChatGPT itself (equivalent to ~210M “Plus” subscriptions), implying major new monetization (ads, commerce, enterprise AI, or productivity capture). The company’s recent chip and supplier deals (Nvidia/AMD/Broadcom) imply roughly $1.3T of downstream expenditures over the next decade and large data‑center build-outs — investments likely financed by expected revenue or debt. If growth slows, OpenAI may need to scale back infrastructure plans, and the broader AI financing ecosystem — investors and partners bet on rapid returns — could face material downside. In short: success would reshape tech economics; history and outside views suggest achieving it in three years is possible but improbable.