Elon Musk's trillion dollar pay package depends on emerging markets (restofworld.org)

Tesla shareholders approved an extraordinary $1 trillion pay package for Elon Musk that only vests if Tesla’s market value rises 525% to $8.5 trillion and the company sells 20 million cars by 2035 — including deploying 1 million robotaxis and delivering 1 million humanoid robots. That target requires roughly 12 million additional car sales in the next decade (Tesla has sold ~8 million across 17 years and currently ships about 1.8 million vehicles per year), even as the company posted its first annual sales decline in a decade and recent quarterly revenue weakness. The package ties Musk’s fortunes to breakthroughs in hardware, software and global market expansion — areas where Chinese rivals are already scaling fast. Firms like BYD lead six of the top ten global EV sellers, sell in 102 countries (vs Tesla’s 35), and have invested >$143 billion across local supply chains, factories and components. That localization, plus intensifying competition in EVs, robotaxis and humanoid robots, raises major technical and operational hurdles: mass robotaxi deployment needs vast real-world data, robust AI stacks, regulatory approvals and regional fleets; humanoid robots demand breakthroughs in perception, control and factory-scale manufacturing. Tesla’s capital-light, export-focused model and limited gigafactory footprint put it at a disadvantage in emerging markets — meaning Musk’s payout likely depends on winning back international manufacturing and scaling AI-driven products where Chinese players are already advancing.