Derek Thompson AI Could Be the Railroad of the 21st Century. Brace Yourself (www.derekthompson.org)

Derek Thompson frames AI as a 21st-century analogue to the transcontinental railroads: a transformative, economy-reordering infrastructure project whose construction requires unprecedented capital and will reshape work, politics, and corporate power. In a conversation with historian Richard White, Thompson draws sharp parallels—railroads created managerial corporations, modern lobbying, and new time-space rhythms—and also contrasts differences: 19th-century railroads were government-subsidized and debt-laden from the start, whereas today’s AI build-out has been driven largely by private cash flows from Big Tech. Still, both eras produced outsized economic concentration and repeated boom–bust cycles when speculative finance and political favors dominated engineering realities. For the AI/ML community the technical and financial signals matter: AI-related stocks have driven roughly 75% of S&P 500 returns since ChatGPT’s launch, data-center construction is eclipsing office builds and pressuring electricity prices (JPMorgan), and Bank of America research shows a recent surge in borrowing to fund datacenters—raising the prospect of a debt-fueled arms race. The implication is clear: expect massive infrastructure demand, intensified regulatory and antitrust scrutiny, and systemic risk if leverage replaces disciplined capital allocation. Practitioners should prepare for large-scale operational challenges (energy, data-center engineering, supply chains) and for AI’s political economy to shape research priorities, funding models, and deployment constraints.