What Happens to the Weavers? Lessons for AI from the Industrial Revolution (knowablemagazine.org)

The piece uses the Industrial Revolution — especially David Ricardo’s shift from techno-optimism to caution after power looms destroyed cottage weaving — as a lens for today’s AI disruption. Economists warn AI could affect up to 40% of jobs (IMF), potentially hollowing out middle‑skill work the way digital automation did since the 1980s. Nobel-recipient economists like Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson argue we need deliberate policy, reskilling and redistribution to prevent widening inequality; Anton Korinek counters that AGI could upend even cognitive work, requiring more radical social protections. Technically, the article highlights realistic, near-term pathways where AI augments rather than replaces workers: AI-guided lung ultrasound allows non‑MD clinicians to capture diagnostic-quality images, HVAC technicians use real‑time AI troubleshooting, and nurse‑practitioner–style roles can scale with decision‑support tools. These examples suggest AI can restore middle-skill, middle-class roles if paired with training and licensing reforms. But the historical lesson is clear: technology’s distributional effects depend on institutions. Policymakers who emulate Ricardo’s later humility — adapting regulation, education and safety nets early — can shape whether AI becomes a broad prosperity engine or another force that concentrates gains and displaces large swaths of labor.