You Have No Idea How Screwed OpenAI Is an Exhaustive Overview of the Situation (www.thealgorithmicbridge.com)

A wide-ranging critique argues OpenAI may be fundamentally exposed despite its dominance: Sam Altman’s aggressive diversification (browsers, devices, chips, social, big cloud and hardware deals) looks less like visionary strategy and more like building a “too big to fail” safety net. OpenAI is reportedly running huge losses (Microsoft disclosed a $12B loss tied to OpenAI last quarter) even as it chases a massive valuation ($500B–$1T rumored) and high-profile contracts (including a cited $200M DoD deal). The piece frames the company as deeply interconnected with the tech and financial system—inviting systemic-risk comparisons to 2008—and lists multiple existential threats, chief among them better-funded rivals and commoditizing product dynamics. Technically and commercially the landscape is shifting: Google/DeepMind now covers models, multimodal agents, cloud, devices and monetization at scale and can apply pricing pressure; models are increasingly interchangeable except at the highest tiers. Enterprise adoption is migrating away from OpenAI—industry data cited shows OpenAI’s enterprise share falling from ~50% in 2023 to ~25% today, while Anthropic leads at 32% (and has a 42% share of developer code-generation usage vs OpenAI’s 21%). That matters because B2B deals and large contracts stabilize revenue more than subscriptions (ChatGPT has ~800M weekly users but only ~40M paid subs). The implication for AI/ML: winner-take-most dynamics plus heavy infrastructure costs create acute incentives for consolidation, price competition, and potential government intervention if a dominant player falters.