AI: Boom or Bubble? A live, point-in-time dashboard (boomorbubble.ai)

“AI: Boom or Bubble?” is a live, point‑in‑time dashboard launched to track systemic risk in the AI economy using five calibrated gauges: capex strain (US data‑center capex as a share of US GDP), industry strain (data‑center capex relative to generative‑AI revenues), revenue momentum (revenue doubling time), valuation heat (NASDAQ P/E ratio), and funding quality (a composite measuring resilience of sector financing). The dashboard ingests SEC filings, analyst and press reporting, and is updated continuously (last update 29 October 2025). A simple rule‑of‑thumb flags risk: two red gauges = trouble, three reds = imminent trouble. Institutional briefings and access are offered on request. Its significance lies in giving investors, policymakers, and engineers an empirical early‑warning system for capex misallocation, valuation disconnects, and fragile funding that have preceded prior collapses. The team backtested heuristics across 28 historical episodes—railroads, electrification, dotcom, telecom, housing, shale gas—showing the same patterns of heavy capex, lagging revenues and weakening funding that presaged past busts. By combining macro (GDP‑level capex) and micro (industry revenue, funding structure) indicators, the dashboard provides a multi‑scale lens to judge whether current AI investment is productive growth or reproducing historical boom‑and‑bust dynamics. Continuous iteration and transparent methodology aim to keep the gauges responsive as the sector evolves.