Reality Is Ruining the Humanoid Robot Hype (spectrum.ieee.org)

Despite soaring enthusiasm and billion-dollar valuations, the widespread deployment of humanoid robots remains far from reality. Companies like Agility Robotics, Tesla, and Figure project shipping tens of thousands of humanoids within the next few years, fueling predictions of a multi-trillion dollar market. However, current deployments are limited to controlled pilot projects, and the gap between ambitious projections and practical applications highlights key challenges: identifying scalable demand, ensuring reliable long-term operation, and meeting strict industrial safety standards. From a technical standpoint, building humanoid robots at scale is feasible given supply chains supporting hundreds of thousands of industrial robots annually. Yet, meeting market demands requires far more than hardware production. Battery life remains a critical bottleneck—Agility’s Digit robot achieves just 90 minutes of runtime with short recharges, but mass deployments would struggle with the logistical complexity of frequent recharging. Reliability and uptime must reach near-perfect levels (99.99%) to avoid costly disruptions in industrial settings, and safety regulations pose unique challenges since humanoids can dynamically balance and fall, complicating emergency shutdown protocols. New ISO standards are emerging, but widespread adoption will require cautious, low-risk deployment strategies. Ultimately, while humanoid robots promise humanlike mobility and flexibility, their current capabilities fall short outside simple, repetitive tasks on flat surfaces. Many experts suggest wheeled robots with arms remain more practical and cost-effective in the near term. The industry’s optimism hinges on future AI breakthroughs translating into robust, multipurpose robots—a prospect still uncertain. For now, the path to scaling humanoids demands confronting substantial technical and economic realities beyond the hype.