When does OpenAI go bankrupt? (tickerfeed.net)

OpenAI is generating huge top-line revenue but losing even more cash: reported H1 2025 revenue was about $4.3B with a $2.5B net loss, and management’s 2025 target is roughly $13B revenue paired with a projected $8.5B net loss. The company has raised eye-popping capital (a reported $40B Series F in 2025 plus $6.6B in late 2024), leaving it with around $17.5B in cash and securities at mid‑2025 and a secondary-market valuation near $500B. Analysts estimate OpenAI could burn north of $100B by 2029 and doesn’t expect profitability until about 2030, implying a simplified runway of roughly two years at an approximate $9B annual burn if no new funding arrives. For the AI/ML community this matters because the business model underpinning large-scale models is intensely capital- and compute‑hungry: training and inference infrastructure are the primary drivers of runaway costs. If investor sentiment shifts, or competitors (Google, Meta, Anthropic, etc.) deliver similarly capable models with much lower cost structures, OpenAI’s high-burn strategy becomes vulnerable. The practical implications are twofold: pressure to find sustainable revenue streams (pricing, enterprise adoption) and stronger incentives for efficiency innovations (model and systems-level optimization, cheaper training pipelines). Caveats to the “bankruptcy” headline include illiquidity of some funding, debt obligations, and the company’s ability to cut costs or grow revenues before reserves run out.