Big trouble if AI and crypto aren't bubbles (www.abc.net.au)

The piece warns that the mid‑2020s “double bubble” — huge speculative bets on artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies — could be worse if it never bursts. Between $3–6 trillion has poured into AI infrastructure and software, the top 10 U.S. AI companies have driven most market gains and are valued at roughly $35 trillion, and some 20,000 cryptocurrencies total about $5.8 trillion. Together those bets are larger than a quarter of global GDP. If a collapse happens it would cause financial pain; but if the investments instead prove sound and the technologies scale without a bust, the disruption could be “epic and terrible”: rapid productivity gains, mass automation, and concentrated wealth with few policy levers to slow it. Technically and socially, the stakes are concrete. AI is already displacing jobs and generating more than half of online articles since ChatGPT’s 2022 debut; permanent unemployment estimates range from 10–50 percent. Problems include large‑scale misinformation (deepfakes, automated political manipulation), exam/fraud facilitation, and long‑term labor displacement analogous to the 1790–1840 “Engels Pause.” Crypto’s original trustless promise has been largely co‑opted by speculation, scams and money‑laundering (crypto ATMs cited as examples). Regulation is focusing on fakery and fraud, but turning off or rolling back AI appears infeasible given the enormous capital and global race to deploy it, leaving policymakers with hard choices about taxation, welfare and market structure.