Goldman Sachs warns of 'jobless growth' in the US as AI fuels output but not jobs (www.businessinsider.com)

Goldman Sachs warned that the U.S. may be entering an era of "jobless growth" as AI-driven productivity boosts GDP without proportionate job creation. In a note, analysts said recent modest job growth alongside robust output is likely to persist because most potential growth now comes from AI rather than labor or immigration. They point to early signs: employment growth outside healthcare has turned negative, AI‑exposed industries show falling employment, private payrolls data (ADP) lost 32,000 jobs in September, job openings are down ~17% year-over-year (Revelio Labs), and corporate leaders are increasingly using AI to cut labor costs. Goldman is skeptical of apocalyptic unemployment forecasts but flags meaningful transitional friction and uneven impacts across worker groups. For the AI/ML community this matters both strategically and ethically: many deployed AI systems appear labor‑substituting rather than labor‑augmenting, risking hollowed‑out middle-income white‑collar roles even as some lower‑skilled tasks may benefit. The bank highlights a historical parallel to the early‑2000s "jobless recovery," where productivity booms enabled firms to restructure during downturns and employment lagged afterward. A silver lining is that faster productivity can restrain inflation, potentially giving the Fed room to cut rates even if unemployment drifts higher—an outcome with major implications for investment, reskilling priorities, and policy responses to technological displacement.