When Does Automating AI Research Produce Explosive Growth? [pdf] (basilhalperin.com)

A new research paper explores the dynamics of automating AI research and its potential to trigger explosive economic growth, introducing a semi-endogenous growth model that incorporates both technological and economic feedback loops. The authors argue that an increased level of automation in AI research can lead to a rapid intelligence explosion by overcoming diminishing returns that traditionally slow down innovation. By simulating scenarios calibrated to current AI progress, they find that fully automating software research, along with a modest increase in automation across other sectors, could culminate in a technological singularity within just six years. This study is significant for the AI/ML community as it quantitatively articulates conditions under which automation can result in hyperbolic growth, emphasizing the importance of feedback loops between different research sectors. The findings suggest that automating hardware research could have particularly profound effects due to lower diminishing returns in that sector. The model provides actionable insights, positing that achieving just 13% automation across various sectors can propel the economy into an explosive growth phase, highlighting the critical interplay between automation, investment, and overall economic output amidst the ongoing evolution of AI technologies.