Graduating into Disruption: Labor Market Outcomes for AI-Exposed College Majors (www.census.gov)

A recent study examining the impact of artificial intelligence on new college graduates reveals alarming trends tied to the rise of large language models like ChatGPT. Researchers analyzed administrative records and found that graduates from college majors most exposed to AI technologies experienced significant declines in employment rates and earnings immediately following ChatGPT's release in late 2022. Specifically, graduates in the top decile of AI-exposed majors saw their initial employment likelihood drop by five percentage points, while their earnings fell by thirteen percent— a decline comparable to the effects of graduating during a major recession. This study holds crucial implications for the AI/ML community, highlighting the disruptive potential of AI on the labor market. The findings suggest that the sectors employing these graduates are paying lower wages, partly due to a shift towards industries with typically lower pay, like retail and restaurants. The adverse effects, while diminishing over time, raise concerns about long-term career trajectories for these graduates, emphasizing the need for educational institutions and policy makers to address the evolving landscape shaped by AI technologies.