Economic Policy for AGI (institute.deepmind.com)

A new framework for economic policy aimed at mitigating the impact of artificial general intelligence (AGI) on the labor market has been proposed amid growing concerns over AI's potential effects on jobs and the economy. As AI capabilities advance significantly, there is both excitement for the benefits AGI could bring—such as improved living standards—and apprehension about its capacity to disrupt cognitive work. The historical context of previous technological shifts, especially those seen during the Industrial Revolution, showcases both the opportunity for prosperity and the risk of increased inequality. The challenge lies in developing proactive policies that can adapt to uncertain economic outcomes tied to AGI. To address this, researchers have evaluated eleven potential policy interventions, assessing them along four critical dimensions: welfare and resilience, agency and voice, feasibility and efficiency, and durability across varying economic scenarios. The resulting recommendations include preemptive stabilizers like expanded unemployment insurance for mild scenarios, transformation of existing tax credits for moderate wage compression, and a universal basic capital system for structural decoupling of labor and capital. By establishing these flexible, data-driven policies now, society may be better equipped to handle the economic disruptions AGI may bring, ensuring equitable growth while enhancing individual agency in the future economy.