Tracking Public Predictions with AI (mob.so)

A new initiative called Prescience has emerged, allowing contributors to submit and track public predictions related to critical areas like technology, policy, and science. The platform organizes calls from well-known figures in the AI community, such as Geoffrey Hinton and Eliezer Yudkowsky, allowing users to assess the credibility of these forecasts through systematic reviews and historical tracking of outcomes. This approach aims to bring a structured lens to speculations about the future of AI, including risks of human extinction and developments in artificial general intelligence (AGI). The significance of Prescience lies in its potential to create a more empirical and accountable discourse around AI predictions. By providing a framework for detailed submissions—including probabilities and timelines—this platform encourages informed discussions that can influence policy and research directions. Some of the forecasts featured include Hinton's assessment of a 10-20% chance for AI-driven human extinction within the next three decades and Legg's prediction of a 50% likelihood for AGI by 2028. As the AI landscape continues to advance rapidly, the rigor established by Prescience could improve decision-making and public understanding in a field that demands high ethical standards and foresight.