Dylan Patel – Anthropic and OpenAI will have most of world’s compute by 2028 (www.dwarkesh.com)

In a recent discussion, Dylan Patel, founder of SemiAnalysis, revealed that by 2028, tech giants Anthropic and OpenAI are poised to control most of the world’s computational resources, largely due to their ability to monetize compute better than competitors. By rapidly increasing their compute capabilities, both companies are expected to capture up to 50% of global incremental compute next year. This shift signifies a broader trend towards centralization in the AI/ML industry as these labs transition from substantial losses to profitability, driven by skyrocketing demand for advanced AI models and efficient hardware. Patel underscores the implications of this concentration of compute, suggesting it could lead to significant economic ramifications, including potential sovereign debt crises as countries not investing heavily in AI may struggle under rising interest rates. Additionally, the increasing efficiency of new hardware—such as advanced GPUs and TPUs—means that while compute demand expands, the overall market will likely evolve towards a few dominant players. This scenario raises critical questions about the future landscape of the AI industry, including whether alternative models can emerge to balance the escalating centralization and protect against monopolistic dominance.