AI and Productivity: What Firms Are Saying on Earnings Calls (www.stlouisfed.org)

An analysis of 490,000 earnings call transcripts from U.S. firms reveals a significant shift in how executives discuss productivity, with a marked increase in references to AI since the advent of tools like ChatGPT in late 2022. Although tangible improvements in overall productivity remain muted, discussions around AI-related productivity are overwhelmingly forward-looking, with approximately 95% of mentions predicting future gains. This indicates a robust optimism among executives regarding AI's potential to enhance operational efficiency, even if current aggregate productivity data points to a mere 0.07% growth in total factor productivity. The composition of productivity-related conversations has notably changed, with discussions of AI rising from near-zero to making up about 15% of all productivity talks by the end of 2025. Alongside this increase, the tone has shifted dramatically toward positive sentiments, with about 95% of AI-related discussions framing productivity expectations in a favorable light. This growing focus on AI is paralleled by substantial investments from firms recognizing AI's potential, suggesting a forward-looking corporate culture that is positioning itself for future innovations rather than reaping immediate benefits. As this trend continues, the AI/ML community is poised for both transformative developments and broader adoption across various sectors.