"Europe 2031" is a bet not a forecast (frederike.substack.com)

The "Europe 2031" scenario, crafted by investors and AI researchers, posits a dire future for Europe if it fails to secure access to cutting-edge AI models, suggesting the continent could become economically dependent on the US or China, or risk fading into irrelevance. This narrative, while compelling, underscores a significant urgency for Europe to act decisively in AI policy. However, the scenario rests on shaky assumptions, warning of the consequences of inaction yet not adequately addressing the risks and costs of potentially misguided actions driven by desperation for "frontier model access." Key recommendations in the scenario include a dramatic scaling-up of AI compute capacity in Europe, which may require vast amounts of energy—potentially exceeding Germany's total consumption—contradicting climate goals. Such expansions could deepen dependency on US cloud providers, raising concerns about the cost-effectiveness and sovereignty implications of relying on proprietary models from a small number of firms. The narrative risks simplifying complex geopolitical and economic dynamics, emphasizing the need for evidence-based policy that critically assesses assumptions around technological reliance and competition, rather than succumbing to fear-based urgency.