China will likely have its own Mythos-like model around February 2027 (www.the-substrate.net)

China is projected to develop its own AI model with capabilities similar to Anthropic’s Mythos by February 2027, based on analyses of compute resources and trends in AI development. The Mythos model has showcased advanced cyber capabilities, drawing comparisons to elite security researchers. Recent benchmarks suggest that China's GLM 5.2 model is lagging about seven months behind Mythos, with uncertainties around whether Chinese firms will allocate sufficient compute resources to catch up. Epoch AI's model indicates that, while capable of pre-training a Mythos-like model, this timeline could accelerate if Chinese tech firms prioritize and concentrate their computational budgets on such developments. This forecast raises significant implications for national security and the global AI landscape. The dual-use nature of advanced AI models heightens the urgency for policymakers, especially in the U.S., to regulate access to cutting-edge chips and other resources that enable such developments. While the model emphasizes that compute availability is crucial, it also indicates that factors such as interest in large-scale frontier models and the human capital to develop them are equally vital. If the Chinese AI sector shifts focus to large-scale model training or accelerates access to vital resources, the timeline for achieving a Mythos-like model could potentially shorten.