AI Is Not a Bubble (danielmiessler.com)

Despite widespread debates framing AI as a “bubble,” this perspective often conflates hype with the fundamental value of AI technology itself. The key distinction lies in understanding what a bubble truly is: by nature, bubbles burst and vanish. The .com bubble, for example, was not the internet’s demise but the unrealistic expectation that merely putting any business online would guarantee instant riches. Similarly, the AI skepticism many express targets the overhyped notion that simply “adding AI” will produce overnight success, rather than the transformative capabilities AI brings to diverse fields. This discussion underscores the need for clarity in defining what people consider the “bubble” in AI. Critics like Gary Marcus and Marcus Hutchins tend to downplay AI’s impact as just “overhyped autocomplete,” while many investors are already facing losses due to inflated expectations. However, the core question remains whether the fundamental technological advances and potential AI-driven change represent a bubble or a lasting shift. The emphasis is on separating temporary market exuberance from the genuine, enduring progress AI is enabling, making this an important conversation for the AI/ML community to navigate hype versus reality with nuance.