2028: Two scenarios for global AI leadership (www.anthropic.com)

A new paper outlines potential future scenarios for AI leadership between the US and China, emphasizing the urgent need for America and its allies to maintain a technological edge over authoritarian regimes, particularly the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The authors stress that the most critical resource for advancing AI capabilities is access to high-performance computer chips, primarily developed by US companies. Current US export controls have successfully limited China's access to these crucial components, but the CCP's AI labs continue to close the gap by exploiting loopholes and employing techniques to mimic US innovations. The paper presents two possible futures for AI by 2028: one where the US fortifies its lead through stricter controls and collaborative safety efforts with international democracies, thus setting global norms for AI use, and another where failure to act allows China to catch up, potentially reshaping AI governance towards authoritarian ends. The implications are profound, as a CCP-led AI frontier could enhance military capabilities and oppressive control mechanisms, making it crucial for democratic nations to take decisive policy actions now to secure a safer and more equitable future in AI development and deployment.