Do Job Postings Show Early Labor-Market Effects of AI? (libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org)

Recent research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York analyzed the impact of generative AI on labor demand by examining job postings for positions exposed to AI. Using detailed job-posting data and an AI exposure metric developed by Anthropic, the study found that while overall hiring has slowed since the release of ChatGPT in late 2022, there is little evidence to suggest a distinct decline in demand for AI-exposed occupations. The analysis revealed that declines in job vacancies for these roles began prior to the release of ChatGPT, undermining the idea that AI adoption is the primary cause of the recent downturn in hiring. This study is significant for the AI/ML community as it challenges the narrative of AI drastically impacting entry-level and high-exposure jobs. Instead of seeing a sharp reduction in demand for junior positions in occupations with substantial AI exposure, the research indicates that hiring trends for entry-level and senior roles have remained parallel. Moreover, current business surveys suggest that companies are focusing more on retraining employees rather than reducing their workforce in response to AI advancements. Overall, while AI may play a role in shaping the labor market, its effects are more nuanced and should not be solely attributed to the stagnation in hiring rates.