Who will be the senior engineers of 2035? (www.theengineeringmanager.com)

A recent exploration into the future of engineering raises critical concerns about the dwindling pipeline of junior engineers due to AI integration and hiring slowdowns post-COVID. As companies increasingly rely on AI for small tasks that used to serve as valuable training grounds for juniors, the traditional mentorship model is eroding. The result is a significant decline in entry-level positions—67% since 2022—and a potential future where experienced engineers lack the "scar tissue" necessary to navigate complex challenges. This erosion of practical learning experiences could lead to a severe talent shortage by 2035, as fewer seasoned engineers emerge from a generation stripped of extensive formative experiences. The implications for the AI/ML community are profound, with three possible scenarios shaping the industry landscape. One scenario suggests a talent crunch, where the lack of skilled engineers hinders operational efficacy as the reliance on AI grows. Alternatively, a bifurcation could arise between "vibe coders" who leverage AI superficially and deeply knowledgeable engineers becoming increasingly rare and costly. A more optimistic scenario could see a democratization of software development, where new entry points emerge as AI abstracts complexity, although it remains uncertain how this will balance the workforce. Ultimately, the future hinges on current decisions, including how seasoned engineers mentor juniors and how organizations perceive the development of talent as a strategic investment rather than a cost.