Why One VC Thinks Quantum Is a Bigger Unlock Than AGI (www.wired.com)

Alexa von Tobel, cofounder of early-stage VC firm Inspired Capital, has made a deliberate, high-risk bet that quantum computing—not artificial general intelligence (AGI)—is the next transformational frontier. Inspired by a post-ChatGPT reassessment of the tech landscape, she led an investment in Logiqal, a startup founded by Princeton’s Jeffrey Thompson focused on neutral-atom hardware using ytterbium and a technique called erasure conversion. Von Tobel emphasizes the hardware-first nature of quantum progress: useful early systems won’t be “perfect” universal machines but could deliver societal value once they reach tens of thousands of functioning qubits and, eventually, scale toward the hundreds of thousands many theorists imagine. Her thesis matters because it reframes where outsized value may originate in the decade ahead. Quantum machines could become domain-specific “thinking engines” for material science, drug discovery, logistics and finance—areas where classical AI and incumbent cloud providers may struggle to maintain moats. Von Tobel cites the extreme scarcity of deep quantum expertise (only hundreds worldwide) and the convexity of VC returns as reasons to accept timing risk. Technically, the bet prioritizes scalable, error-resilient hardware approaches (neutral atoms + erasure conversion) over software-first plays, arguing that solving qubit scale and fidelity is a prerequisite for unlocking quantum-driven scientific breakthroughs.