The Eternal Promise: A History of Attempts to Eliminate Programmers (www.ivanturkovic.com)

The history of attempts to simplify software development dates back to the 1960s and has seen recurring promises to eliminate the need for programmers. As large language models (LLMs) and AI-assisted coding emerge, the narrative reflects similar claims made over the last six decades – that programming will soon be accessible to all without the need for traditional coding skills. However, historical examples, like the development of COBOL in 1959 aimed at allowing business users to write their programs, reveal that while programming languages may democratize some aspects, they often lead to the creation of specialized roles rather than their elimination. Throughout the decades, various technological advancements—like fourth-generation languages in the 1980s and computer-aided software engineering (CASE) in the 1990s—promised to make software engineering akin to real engineering with automated code generation from specifications. Yet, these tools frequently fell short as they could not fully bridge the conceptual gap between simple user intent and complex system requirements, reasserting the demand for skilled programmers who could navigate this intricacy. Today's AI advancements echo these historical patterns, emphasizing the ongoing challenge of translating natural language into functional code, a task that remains more nuanced than anticipated despite the allure of automation.