The Second Half of the Chessboard (joshs.bearblog.dev)

Recent discussions highlight the rapid progress of AI capabilities, akin to the classic chessboard problem, where exponential growth leads to astonishing outcomes. AI systems, which were once limited to tasks taking mere minutes, can now autonomously complete complex tasks that traditionally require hours or even days of human labor. This doubling of efficiency is occurring at an accelerated pace, with estimates suggesting a significant transformation could happen within the next few years. As the cost of AI and cognitive labor plummets, traditional corporate structures might become increasingly obsolete, prompting a reevaluation of employment and expertise in the workplace. The implications for the AI and ML community are profound, marking what some refer to as the "Intelligence Curse," where the abundance of AI intelligence makes human cognitive labor less valuable. This shift may lead to major disruptions in employment, affecting entry-level jobs first and potentially resulting in hiring freezes or layoffs as organizations prioritize efficiency and cost. The significant compute power expected to come online by 2026 further underscores the urgency of adapting to these changes, as competitive pressures in the market will increasingly demand that firms embrace AI technologies or risk falling behind. As we approach this pivotal moment, the need for thoughtful consideration of the societal impacts of such rapid advancements has never been more critical.