The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday (campedersen.com)

A new analysis of five key metrics in AI development suggests that the much-discussed technological singularity—when AI surpasses human intelligence—could occur on a Tuesday in 2034. The research employs a hyperbolic growth model, rather than the more common exponential or polynomial models, to predict this event. Metrics evaluated include MMLU scores, the cost of AI intelligence, the frequency of significant AI releases, and the volume of emergent AI research papers. Notably, only the count of emergent research papers shows a hyperbolic curve, suggesting that while machines are improving at a steady rate, human engagement and recognition of AI's evolution are accelerating dramatically. This finding is significant for the AI/ML community, as it shifts the focus from machine capabilities to human responses and societal implications of AI advancements. The research indicates that by 2026, the rapid pace of AI developments may outstrip society's ability to adapt, leading to increased job disruptions, trust issues, and political unrest. The central takeaway is that the potential for a "social singularity"—characterized by a failure in collective human decision-making regarding AI—may occur long before machines reach superintelligence, emphasizing the urgent need for institutions to catch up with AI's acceleration and the ensuing socio-political challenges.