An interactive toy model for exploring AI's effect on the labour market (www.lesswrong.com)

A new interactive model developed by a Google DeepMind researcher explores the implications of AI on the labor market, focusing specifically on cognitive tasks. This tool enables users to manipulate variables such as AI capabilities, adoption rates, and economic factors to predict how AI displacement might affect human employment. The model operates under the assumption that AI can substitute for human labor in many cognitive tasks, suggesting that as AI’s capabilities grow and its deployment becomes cheaper, the potential for job displacement increases significantly. The results of various scenarios reveal that by 2030, a modest impact on the labor market leads to wage pressure on lower-tier jobs, while higher-tier tasks see wage growth due to increased AI-induced demand. By 2040, the model predicts potential displacement for human workers in simple tasks, although there remains full employment for humans in more complex roles, driven by limitations in AI capabilities. This versatile modeling tool highlights critical dynamics between AI development and labor economics, emphasizing the need for careful consideration of non-cognitive tasks and societal implications as AI technology advances. With implications for both job displacement and wage evolution, this model serves as a significant contribution to understanding AI's potential future role in the workforce.