Rodney Brooks' Technology Predictions Scorecard (rodneybrooks.com)

In the latest update on his eight-year-old predictions about advancements in AI, robotics, and human space travel, Rodney Brooks reflects on the accuracy and surprises of his forecasts made in 2018. He noted that while his predictions largely held up, he was somewhat too optimistic about the timeline for transformative technologies. Interestingly, he correctly anticipated the emergence of large language models (LLMs) around 2023, albeit without specifying this innovation at the time. His insights highlight the varying speeds of technological adoption and hype in different domains, which he has tracked for over four decades. Looking ahead, Brooks has made five new predictions for the next decade, emphasizing key areas such as quantum computing, self-driving cars, humanoid robots, neural computation, and LLMs. He suggests that quantum computers will begin to tackle specialized problems, while the success of self-driving cars hinges on companies like Waymo and Zoox maintaining low human intervention rates. Brooks also expresses skepticism about the advancement of humanoid robot dexterity and predicts the development of LLMs equipped with better interpretability mechanisms crucial for safe and effective deployment. This scorecard serves as a benchmark for ongoing technological progress in crucial fields shaping the future of AI and robotics.