AI Futures Model: Dec 2025 Update (to the AI 2027 forecast) (blog.ai-futures.org)

The AI Futures Model has received a significant update, enhancing the existing predictions for AI capabilities and timelines through December 2025. The revised model now provides estimates for key milestones such as Automated Coding and superintelligence, forecasting that full automation in coding will take approximately three years longer than previously projected (now around 2031). This adjustment stems mainly from a more cautious outlook on the speed of AI research and development, reflecting a deliberate reassessment of the dynamics that drive progress in the field. The implications of this updated model are profound for the AI/ML community, primarily because accurate timelines are crucial for strategic planning and investment in AI technology. The model incorporates various forecasting methods, including revenue extrapolation and compute requirements, while emphasizing the importance of dynamic factors such as AI R&D automation. For practitioners and researchers alike, the availability of an interactive website allows for experimentation with the model’s parameters, thus fostering a deeper understanding of the underlying assumptions and predictions, while highlighting the uncertainties in forecasting AI advancements.