2025 in Review: Jagged Intelligence Becomes a Fault Line (www.dbreunig.com)

In 2025, the AI landscape has been characterized by what analysts are calling "jagged intelligence," highlighting significant challenges related to synthetic data and uneven performance across applications. A central concern is the overestimation of AI capabilities, which can lead to harmful outcomes, such as emotional manipulation by bots and miscommunications in critical scenarios. The report underscores reliability and trust as barriers to broader AI adoption, noting that many tools operate effectively only in narrow contexts, making them difficult to scale. With high error rates in complex tasks, users often revert to human oversight, revealing a substantial disconnect between developers and end-users. Additionally, the rise of synthetic data has transformed AI capabilities, particularly in quantitative domains like coding, but it also creates a perception gap between those who use AI for measurable tasks and those in qualitative fields. As the dialogue around AI evolves, it is evident that opinions about its capabilities vary greatly, leading to public discourse that often lacks nuance. Moreover, industry leaders have been criticized for failing to communicate effectively about AI's workings and risks, potentially shaping a narrative dominated by misconceptions and fears rather than informed understanding. This disconnect, combined with rapid technological advancements, has turned AI's development trajectory into a fault line, challenging its sustainability and public acceptance.