No one but America has the leverage to get AI labor policy right (writing.antonleicht.me)

A recent analysis argues that only the United States has the fiscal muscle and regulatory leverage to shape AI labor outcomes effectively, and that other countries are likely to be hit earlier and harder by AI-driven job disruption. The core claim: US workers and firms are better positioned to adopt AI augmentation (making humans more productive and harder to replace) and to spawn new AI-enabled businesses, while AI development, compute infrastructure, and high-value agent products are likely to concentrate revenue in the US. That concentration undermines other countries’ ability to finance large-scale redistribution or retraining programs, because growth-driven tax revenue will flow across borders and shift from taxed labor income to lower-taxed corporate returns. Technically, the piece highlights three mechanisms: (1) AI-augmented workers reduce the marginal attractiveness of wholesale agent replacement; (2) bespoke, agent-oriented systems (trained in specialized RL environments) and scarce semiconductors/cloud compute will concentrate rents around US firms and infrastructure; (3) weaker jurisdictions lack both the taxable base and regulatory reach to slow diffusion or compel safer deployment. The implication for AI/ML communities and policymakers is stark: transplanting US labor-policy solutions won’t work globally. Mitigation will require international strategies around trade, taxation, and strategic control of compute and agent deployment, not just copying domestic US fixes.